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The simple answers to the questions that get asked about every new technology:
Will [blank] make us all geniuses? No
Will [blank] make us all morons? No
Will [blank] destroy whole industries? Yes
Will [blank] make us more empathetic? No
Will [blank] make us less caring? No
Will teens use [blank] for sex? Yes
Were they going to have sex anyway? Yes
Will [blank] destroy music? No
Will [blank] destroy art? No
But can’t we go back to a time when- No
Will [blank] bring about world peace? No
Will [blank] cause widespread alienation by creating a world of empty experiences? We were already alienated
There is already science that shows that people using llms makes them measurably worse, in an incredibly short amount of time, at tasks than they were before using llms.
So, “will x make us all morons? No” actually has some peer reviewed work that seems to imply "possibly NOT ‘no’ "
Google Maps also makes us bad at finding our way manually. Are we therefore a moron?
If you’ve offloaded your capacity to navigate, and are worse at navigating, then you’re objectively worse at navigating, that’s the reality.
What are you offloading to ai? Are you worse at it now? Is it critical thinking? Then yes.
Said “science” is a handful of cherrypicked studies that cannot reliably say such things. The US has been in a downward spiral of ignorance for a little while now. And if it is caused by anything, it’s a combination of poor schooling, poor parenting, and social media.
Getting worse at tasks doesn’t make you a moron. Are you a moron because you aren’t as good at mental arithmetic as you were when you practiced it for school? No.
“What should I do” and “what is 17+19” are fundamentally different questions.
What cognitive deficiency makes one a moron? This is the question.
If you believe there is nothing one could be deficient at that makes one a moron, then yes: no technology would make you a moron. You’re starting from a position where there is no prerequisite to not be a moron. It’s a tautology.
If there is a nugget… some bare minimum of performance required to not be a moron… then you must consider if a technology is driving people to that state.
I know morons.
I know they exist. I know what they lack.
I know why AI excites them. It provides a leveling mechanic that allows them to put up a facade of competence. I have no frame of reference to viscerally comprehend the excitement of being able to cosplay as a competent person. It must be the most exciting thing in the world.
For everyone else who alreadyhad two brain cells to rub together, it’s a Tuesday.
Synthesizing direction from inputs is intelligence. Deriving future inputs from observed data is a calculator. They couldn’t be more different. It’s obscene delusion to suggest they’re the same let alone similar
AI making you a moron requires not only that using AI degrades your faculties to such an extent that you become one, but that “all of us” (let’s say, the majority of people in rich countries) use it so much it has that effect.
I’m sure it will have some effect on the unexpected portions of one’s brain, but still doubt the first part is true, as do I doubt the second.
“All” is obviously a step too far. I can give you that. I think it’s an overly literal way to interpret the spirit of the statement, as essentially nothing afflicts “All”, making the statement pretty much universally worthless. But it’s still a good faith argument on your end I think, so ok.
I think it will make most people more moronic. How many people it pushes over the line? Couldn’t say… but anecdotally a lot of people I interact with before have been pushed over the line already.
In my experience, there seems to be a correlation to how close to that line people are and how excited they are about LLMs. A few major exceptions. Possibly bimodal distribution? I dunno.
If it were refrained as “will x make a terrifyingly shit ton of people morons? So much so that societal organization will be measurably harmed?” Maybe it’d be easier.
That’s why I weakened “all” though? You’re weakening it even more.