Quick informal tldr. Posadas was a marxist theorist who believed that any sufficently advanced life would be socialist as pre-condition to achieving interstellar travel. Therefore, its in the best interest of socialists on earth to attempt to make contact or force them intervene, up to and including starting a nuclear war.

Not entirely doing it justice, so to any real Posadists, dont pillory me.

Damn, naive posadism in the wild.

There’s a few of tracks leading to this actually. You got cracks in old alliances forming, a mostly failed attempt at revanchism from Russia and the USA getting it’s fingers stuck in a mouse trap, and many many more geopolitical factors that heighten tension between states. Then on another track, you have a worsening climate situation that is MUCH more serious than most western leaders are daring to admit, this ties back to the first as states will begin to take drastic efforts to control worsening conditions. Finally there has been a technological shift in a variety of ways, drones of course. Along that same vein, China has quietly been catching up to the US in terms of military tech, this isn’t as flashy but it is monumentous.